I think we've known all along what it's going to be. Kraine will agree to neutrality in exchange for some security guarantees from the west. Russia will get to keep crimea, because that's been a fate a complice since the annexation two thousand 14. And there will be some sort of regional autonomy for these sort of russian speaking areas in the donbas which, by the way, we could have had that too. So, you know, those are the broad strokes of the deal. I'm not betting this way withit, with our book, but if i had to guess, we are going to have a period of significant escallation on both sides before they
0:00 Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner is filling in for Friedberg
1:34 Understanding public SaaS and Internet multiples, Instacart's cuts its valuation by 40%, understanding reality of overvalued late-stage companies
21:52 Capital allocators at fault, how crossover funds are reacting, late-stage price discovery, investor and founder behavioral psychology
40:37 Sacks' burn multiple, managing growth spend, new VC qualifications, lessons from the COVID bubble
53:58 Russia/Ukraine: US potential non-ceasefire strategy, Zelenskyy's revelations in CNN interview, rhetoric getting more aggressive
1:08:58 How will Putin withdraw without redacting the sanctions? What is the offramp? Zelenskyy's posture on global war
1:24:18 Understanding China's recently announced tax cuts, All-In Summit talk
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Intro Music Credit:
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Intro Video Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-burnmultiple-51a7e43cb200
https://substack.com/profile/11803623-jamin-ball
https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1506243619384037378
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-22/niall-ferguson-putin-and-biden-misunderstand-history-in-ukraine-war
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1507378113893871617
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-first-phase-ukraine-operation-mostly-complete-focus-now-donbass-2022-03-25/
https://www.wptv.com/news/national/russia-ukraine-conflict/zelenskyy-warns-of-world-war-iii-if-russia-ukraine-peace-talks-fail
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/03/20/zelensky_ukraine_failed_putin_talks_would_mean_a_third_world_war.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/zelenskyy-ukraine-zakaria-interview-00018716
https://fortune.com/2022/03/25/russia-g20-summit-putin-biden-indonesia-bali-china-ukraine/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine.html
https://fortune.com/2022/03/24/putin-russia-natural-gas-europe-imports-pay-in-rubles-sanctions/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/biden-says-us-would-respond-to-russia-if-putin-uses-chemical-or-biological-weapons.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/03/09/blinken-u-s-would-not-recognize-crimea-secession/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sticks-with-longstanding-u-s-policy-on-use-of-nuclear-weapons-amid-pressure-from-allies-11648176849
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-21/china-embraces-supply-side-economics-with-tax-cuts
