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Keeping it Simple on the Road | Ep.7: Chasing the Curve

Keeping it Simple with Simplify Asset Management

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The Fed's Prediction of a Recession

The market's actually pricing more aggressive cuts because there's only a, I don't know, call it a 60% probability that they get there and they do those cuts. If you think about it from that perspective, if you say there's 150 basis points of cuts priced into that one year forward point, then that means the market's pricing in the fed's going to cut 300 basis points. And I don't think they're cutting until next year. So it's really like, but where's the wrong part of the curve? And we can say for the end, but and what's the trade you do?

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