China’s position as the world’s factory is shifting. Growth is slowing to approximately 4-5%, wages are rising, the workforce is shrinking due to an aging population, the property crisis is weighing on GDP, and Western tariffs are restricting exports. For decades, China produced goods at low cost, but a significant supply chain gap is now emerging. India is emerging as a leading contender, with a 6.4% growth forecast, production-linked incentives attracting companies such as Apple, Samsung, and Micron, and digital infrastructure like UPI and Aadhaar accelerating business. Vietnam, Mexico, and Indonesia are also competing for manufacturing investment. The key question is whether India can redefine manufacturing through scale, stability, and strong domestic demand, or if bureaucracy and inequality will impede its progress.
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