3min chapter

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#680: Richard Koch — Revisiting the 80/20 Principle, The Power of Optimistic Journaling, Studying History to Improve Investing, and The Grand Beliefs of Winners (Plus: The Toxic Beliefs of Losers)

The Tim Ferriss Show

CHAPTER

The Future Is Terribly, Terribly Uncertain

The future is terribly, terribly uncertain. But when you look forward in history, it's wide open. In thinking about an investment, you always got to say what is the most likely thing that can happen? And what are the outlying things that could happen? I think Lenin coming to power was a complete freak. That would not have happened if the Germans and the Swiss had not given him safe passage to Finland station where he lived with his wife. If something very tiny hadn't happened, then this very large thing would not have been a consequence of it. How do you then connect that to say making a successful investment, if you could just connect those dots? Okay. So we covered

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