Productivity Rebound: Insights and Implications

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni

04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy

07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?

10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?

13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed

16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?

17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?

19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral rate

22:27 - The roaring 20's scenario

25:46 - What is fuelling the productivity?

30:12 - The data behind productivity

31:58 - Is the U.S industrial advantage part of the productivity story?

33:20 - What can we learn from 80s and 90's productivity boom?

36:42 - How is international policy playing out in the U.S?

40:40 - Yardeni's outlook for the stock market

43:43 - Is a recession unavoidable?

45:40 - What happens to the economy when we enter a recession?

48:27 - Yardeni's perspective on bitcoin

52:19 - Why play with gold when you have crypto?

54:10 - Don't mess with the bond vigilantes

57:42 - Where can you following Yardeni's work?

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