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Episode 106: Former Head of National Intelligence Council and Deputy ODNI Neil Wiley on Intelligence Analysis

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The Challenge of Bias and Heuristics in Intelligence Analysis

Bob Greene: Bias is actually a feature, not a glitch in our thinking. Heuristics we have allow us to assess complicated situations very quickly. And the challenge that those heuristics make for intelligence analysis is sometimes and actually I'll say frequently. They blind us to alternatives that we really should consider so a lot of intelligence analysis is taught around how to think counter intuitively. You can train your organization to produce a good trade craft assessment but I cannot do it by myself.

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