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We all want to live long and well—but how do we determine how many good years we have ahead?
In this episode of Live Long and Well with Dr. Bobby, we explore how to estimate both our total lifespan and the number of years we can expect to remain active and pain-free. Dr. Bobby reflects on personal experiences, emerging science, and time-tested frameworks to help you reframe your health trajectory with clarity and motivation. While we may not find exact answers, the tools and thought experiments shared in this conversation can shape the way we live now—and influence how we plan for the future.
We begin with why this topic matters, touching on personal stories of loss, aging milestones, and medical advancements. Then we move into three frameworks: how many years you might live (using tools from actuarial tables to cardiovascular risk calculators), how many of those years might be "good," and the wildcard of unpredictable events.
The simplest predictor comes from actuarial life tables, which estimate life expectancy by age and sex. A 55-year-old man today might expect to live to 79; a woman to 82. More advanced tools include the Framingham Risk Score, which factors in cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking status, and diabetes to estimate 10-year cardiovascular risk. Research suggests that sharing these risk scores can lead to behavior changes, as shown in this meta-analysis of 28 studies and preliminary evidence of outcome improvements.
On the genetics side, polygenic risk scores offer a glimpse into inherited risks, though they remain research tools for now (Nature study). More accessible are tests for specific genes like APOE4, which increases the risk of dementia (PubMed).
Beyond numbers, simple physical tests can offer insight. The Brazilian sit-stand test links mobility with mortality risk: fewer than 8 points doubles your six-year mortality risk. Grip strength, too, is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality across 17 countries (PubMed).
While biologic clocks based on DNA methylation are generating buzz, their utility remains limited due to variability between samples and testing methods (Nature Communications).
When it comes to estimating “good” years—those lived free from major pain or disability—the data are sparse. Some disease-specific tools (e.g., for MS or dementia progression) exist, but there’s no universal actuarial equivalent. However, we know muscle mass and aerobic capacity decline predictably with age—1–2% muscle loss per year and a 10% drop in aerobic fitness per decade (OUP Journal). Predicting your future function can begin with assessing how far you can walk, whether stairs leave you breathless, or how your weight and strength compare to a decade ago.
Finally, we can’t forget unpredictable events: the odds of a serious fall increase significantly after 65, and vision or hearing loss multiplies that risk (NCOA). Building physical resilience now can reduce these odds—see
