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What Would Happen to Global Bond Markets if Japan Removes YCC?
We think the whole YCC debate in that case would be a bit of red herring. The day of spillover may be about 15 or 20 basis points, but the long run spillover coefficients are not that large. And I think the question then is what happens to the yen? That could trigger pretty sharp strengthening in the yen. Japanese investors have been some of the biggest buyers of global bonds for 10 years.