GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Commodity cycles and the rise of carry trades
Adam explains carry trades, positive feedback loops, and how commodity cycles sit on the opposite side of carry-driven markets.
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction
03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”
49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply
55:48 - Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles
01:00:19 - Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets
01:07:23 - Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world
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