We can't predict who is going to be that outlier innovator that moves society forward. If we accept those tales exist, and we accept they exist on both the negative and positive side, we should be investing in those positive tales. And we certainly shouldn't stunt any one's growth, especially if they're on a very good trajectory. I think we've covered everything about tales there. Hopefully, if nesim teleb listen to this, he doesn't just totally roast us on twitter.
In this episode, Cal and Steph discuss the hidden side of risk: the infrequent, often unpredictable events that make the biggest differences in our lives.
If you look around, rare, high-impact events are everywhere.
- A small number of days in the stock market drive the bulk of the returns.
- Large businesses like Google, Amazon, and Best Buy have tested thousands of products, yet have a single profit puppy.
- Insurance companies make money on most customers, but have to pay out very large claims to a few people.
- A handful of people have had more of an effect on the future than the other 7 billion people combined.
This episode is all about navigating tail risk and tail opportunity. You'll learn how to better avoid the catastrophic events in life, and on the flip side, to take advantage of the life-enhancing opportunities with asymmetric upside.
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