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The Benefit of Doubt

The Essay

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The History of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is so painful that we're happier with doom than doubt. That's when we become most susceptible to promises of absolute certainty. We frequently turn to history in the belief that history repeats itself, an article of faith not shared by professional historians and for good reason. The history we make today is informed by knowledge which our forebears lacked. But uncertainty about outcomes is what makes historical analogies so attractive. They seem to take the danger out of the unknown and replace it with guarantees of triumph.

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