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Prediction Markets and Beyond

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The Power of Prediction Markets

This chapter explores 'neighbor polls' and the mechanics of prediction markets, highlighting their ability to aggregate dispersed information for more reliable outcomes. It examines case studies, such as HP's internal markets, and discusses the impacts of market thickness on predictive accuracy. Additionally, the chapter critiques legal barriers surrounding prediction markets in the U.S. and emphasizes the importance of diverse participation and incentives in fostering effective prediction mechanisms.

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