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GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

Top Traders Unplugged

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The Interaction Between Business and Structural Cycles: Market Predictions and Risk Outcomes

This chapter explores the relationship between the business cycle and the structural cycle in terms of equity market performance and risk outcomes. It discusses the predictive nature of the business cycle in the past due to the dominance of the Fed and monetary policy, but highlights the diminished predictability in the current structural cycle. The chapter also delves into the impact of structural issues, sentiment, and machine learning on asset allocation and the significance of inflation volatility on portfolio destruction.

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