Is There a Recession Probability?

Dario’s views of the global economy’s structure and how the next decade plays out are very different from those of most observers. He thinks the 1970s analogue is the wrong one to look at and that the postwar decades, the 1940s and the 1950s, provide a better framework. At the same time, he foresees a move toward a "tangible economy" and away from the "intangible economy" of the 2010s. In the fourth installment of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Dario and Raoul talk about ramifications of this transition for inflation, growth, and interest rates. Recorded on May 12th, 2022.

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