U.S.–China Dynamics and Fast Takeoff Scenarios

Join Tommy Shaughnessy as he speaks with Mike McCormick, founder of Halcyon, about the urgent intersection of AI acceleration and safety. Mike shares his path from venture capital to launching a hybrid nonprofit–fund model focused on securing advanced AI systems. They dive into mechanistic interpretability, global competition for AGI, and what a safe superintelligence future could look like. Can we build superintelligence safely? How do we balance innovation with existential risk? And what happens to humanity when AGI arrives?

Halcyon Futures: https://halcyonfutures.org

🎯 Key Highlights

▸ Leaving VC to focus entirely on AI safety and security

▸ Why Halcyon flipped the model: nonprofit first, fund second

▸ Multi-layered “defense in depth” approach to AI biosecurity & cyber risk

▸ The acceleration vs. safety debate — finding middle ground

▸ Good Fire case: career grants into interpretability research

▸ The 2×2 dilemma — speed vs. slowdown, centralization vs. decentralization

▸ U.S.–China dynamics and fast takeoff scenarios

▸ AI underwriting: how insurance can drive safety standards

▸ Founder-market fit and mission orientation in AI startups

▸ Risk, diffusion, and the uncertain path to AGI

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🧠 Follow the Alpha

▸ Mike's Twitter: @MikeMcCormick_

▸ Halcyon's Twitter: @HalcyonFutures

🔗 Connect with Delphi

🌐 Portal: https://delphidigital.io/

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💼 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/delphi-digital/

🎧 Listen on

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/62PR1RigLG2YN5Pelq6UY9?si=18ac7ccf36ab4753&nd=1&dlsi=50105fd66e6c4124

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-delphi-podcast/id1438148082

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9Yy99ZlQIX9-PdG_xHj43Q

Timestamps

00:00 — Mike’s background & pivot to AI safety

03:00 — The realization: AGI could change everything

05:00 — Why VC wasn’t enough to solve the problem

06:00 — Halcyon’s hybrid model and early mission

08:00 — AI security concerns: misuse, bio, and control

12:00 — Defense in depth: pre-training → deployment

15:00 — The creativity vs. restriction trade-off

17:30 — Pause AI vs. Build Baby Build

20:00 — Speed vs. centralization: the 2×2 framework

24:00 — Good Fire: career grants & interpretability

27:00 — Writing to neurons: alignment and insight

30:00 — How insurance markets can enforce safety

36:00 — Mission-driven founders & conviction filters

44:00 — Geopolitical race: U.S., China, and compute

50:00 — Diffusion limits, adoption, and energy costs

57:00 — Mass unemployment and meaning after AGI

01:05:00 — What “winning” AGI means for humanity

01:12:00 — Critical thinking, sycophantic AI, and engagement traps

01:20:00 — UBI, adaptation, and new work paradigms

01:30:00 — Three AGI futures: scale, shift, or stall

01:36:00 — 20% catastrophic risk & asteroid analogy

01:40:00 — Final message: talent is upstream of everything

Disclaimer

This podcast is strictly informational and educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any tokens or securities or to make any financial decisions. Do not trade or invest in any project, tokens, or securities based upon this podcast episode. The host and members at Delphi Ventures may personally own tokens or art that are mentioned on the podcast.