Polls, Perceptions, and Political Discourse

John is joined by the world’s most celebrated data nerd, polling aggregator, and election forecaster, Nate Silver, to discuss the 2024 election. Nate offers unnervingly precise takes on just how close the race is (it won’t calm your nerves a bit); Kamala Harris’s likelihood of winning each of the battleground states; the thesis advanced in the New York Times that the GOP’s advantage in the Electoral College is shrinking; whether the polling industry has cured what ailed it in 2016 and 2020; the “contingency plans” you should be making ahead of November 5; having so many people displace their election-related anxieties directly on to him. He also talks about his new bestselling book, On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, his relationship with Peter Thiel, his poker addiction, and why the movies Rounders and Moneyball are, well, everything.

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