AI's Likely GDP Impact Over Time

What if the biggest risk from AI isn’t superintelligence gone rogue, but the inflexibility of our human institutions?

My guest today, Tyler Cowen, thinks so. Tyler is a professor at George Mason university and one of the most celebrated economists in the world. And unlike many AI proponents, Tyler strongly challenges the idea that intelligence alone determines outcomes in society, and instead points to us humans as the real bottlenecks shaping our future, for better or worse.

Together with my occasional co-host Igor Kurganov, we debate why he thinks diffusion and human adoption matter more than raw capability, and why markets remain one of the most under-appreciated signals in conversations about AI risk. Tyler also shares his views on economic growth, UBI, automation, persuasion, state capacity, why fears of mass unemployment and civilizational collapse are often overstated.

And of course, we explore what it takes to design win-win systems that scale without collapsing under their own incentives.

Oh and we discuss aliens too! A really fun one, hope you enjoy.

Chapters: 

00:00 - Introduction

01:40 – Market Driven Addiction

14:38 – Wealth Plus

17:28 – State Capacity Libertarianism

25:29 – Why Is Carbon Tax Failing?

27:14 – Climate Engineering

29:45 – Pharmaceutical Pricing

36:45 – Designing Incentives

37:24 – AI’s Impact on the Economy

53:24 – AI’s Impact on Tyler

55:25 – Universal Basic Income

59:25 – AI Timelines

01:10:45 – AI Risk Reflected in Markets

01:18:25 – Convincing Future Risk Scenarios

01:20:57 – AI as a Super Persuader

01:30:51 – Is Tyler Competitive?

01:41:39 – Strangest Beliefs & Aliens

01:46:14 – Rapid-Fire Predictions

Links: 

♾️ Tyler’s X: https://x.com/tylercowen?lang=en 

♾️ Tyler’s website: https://tylercowen.com 

♾️ Tyler’s blog: https://marginalrevolution.com 

♾️ Meditations on Moloch: https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Meditations-On-Moloch

Credits:

♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree

♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico

The Win-Win Podcast:

Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, politicians and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose systems into Win-Wins.

Podcast links:

♾️ Youtube:   https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S

♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f 

♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350 

♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2