The Memo by Howard Marks cover image

Thinking About Macro

The Memo by Howard Marks

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The Medium Wall Street Forecast for the Stock Market From Two Thousand Through 20 20

Since two thousand the medium analyst forecast has called for an average yearly return on the s and p 500 of nine point five %, whereas the actual average gain was six point o %. In 20 18, for example, the market fell six point nine %, though the forecasters said it would rise seven point 5%. And yet the stock market lost money in six of those years. All told, when gaps like that are taken into account, the medium wall street forecast from two thousand through 20 20 missed its target by an average 12 point nine percentage points. The average gained by 58 %, nine point five over six point o minus one each december since 2000....

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