Midterm Signals: Governors as Bellwethers

On this episode of The Chuck ToddCast, Chuck previews the Democratic prospects for the 2028 presidential election, highlighting why Gavin Newsom has shot to the top of the field and debates which candidate is most likely to win the “centrist” lane.

Then, at the Texas Tribune Festival, Maryland Governor Wes Moore joins Chuck Todd for a wide-ranging conversation about leadership in the Trump era, the future of Democratic politics, and the policy challenges shaping the next decade. Moore reflects on governing a state uniquely positioned at the crossroads of America’s north and south — and uniquely impacted by Donald Trump’s presidency. He and Chuck dig into the shutdown’s political fallout, why the legal theory behind shutdowns has always been flimsy, and how Maryland worked to blunt its effects. Moore also lays out why kicking people off healthcare is an indefensible shutdown tactic, what Democrats got right and wrong in their approach, and how states can tackle crime without relying on the myths surrounding the National Guard.

The conversation turns toward the issues that will define 2026 and beyond, including skyrocketing electric bills, the urgent need to rapidly diversify energy production, and the responsibility tech companies bear as AI and data centers reshape local communities. Moore challenges Democrats to rethink their discomfort with Wall Street, argues that poverty is the result of deliberate policy design, and explains how racial wealth theft — from redlining to inequitable lending — continues to hold the economy back. Chuck also presses him on 2028 rumors, his vision for restoring bipartisanship in a polarized country, and why national service might help rebuild trust in American institutions. Packed with policy, perspective, and political strategy, it’s a candid look at how one of the party’s rising stars sees the road ahead.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s Introduction

01:00 Big takeaways from interview with Wes Moore

03:15 Gavin Newsom has shot to the top of Dem presidential candidates

04:15 Gavin Newsom won 2025 on Dem side, Vance on GOP side

06:00 Dems need to win governor races in red states to have good midterm

07:15 Will Shapiro, Moore or Beshear win the centrist lane?

10:30 If Dems are successful in ‘26 they may not want a partisan warrior

14:45 Texas Tribune introduction

15:30 Chuck Todd is joined by Maryland Governor Wes Moore

17:45 Balancing optimism in pessimism in the current political climate

19:15 No state has felt the impact of Trump more than Maryland

21:15 Maryland is where America’s north and south blend & clash

22:00 Confronting Trump vs. preparing for a post-Trump world

25:45 Did the Democrats take the right approach to the shutdown?

26:30 Shutdowns are predicated on a legal theory, not the constitution

28:15 Maryland took steps to mitigate damage from the shutdown

29:30 Kicking people off healthcare is an indefensible position for shutdown

31:15 Does Donald Trump have a point about crime in major cities?

32:45 How Maryland was able to significantly lower crime rate

34:00 Trump uses the military like they’re childish toy soldiers

35:00 There’s no data to support claim that national guard lowers crime

38:00 Advice Wes Moore gave to Zohran Mamdani for dealing with Trump

40:30 What does Trump do well that got him elected twice?

41:45 Donald Trump doesn’t wait to act

43:30 The electric bill will be the “price of eggs” issue in 2026

44:45 What can government do to alleviate high electricity prices?

47:00 We need to diversify energy projects and bring online faster

49:00 What is the responsibility of tech companies building data centers

50:30 AI & tech advancement must be done in partnership with communities

51:15 Why should Democrats not be overly skeptical of Wall Street?

52:15 Poverty exists due to deliberate policy choices

57:00 Why do Democrats have a net negative view of capitalism?

1:00:00 Does the socialist label create a branding problem?

1:01:00 The racial wealth gap has cost the economy $16T over two decades

1:01:30 Why haven’t reparations happened?

1:03:00 Redlining was one of the greatest wealth thefts in American history

1:05:45 Why should we believe Wes isn’t running in 2028?

1:08:30 What is one policy he supports that the Democratic party avoids?

1:11:45 How do we bring back bipartisanship when the middle doesn’t exist?

1:15:00 Message to people in their 20’s watching the upheaval in institutions?

1:19:00 Support for mandatory national service?

1:20:30 Best route for Maryland to overcome redistricting roadblocks?

1:24:00 Pitch to convince people to move from Texas to Maryland?

1:24:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Wes Moore

1:27:00 Ask Chuck

1:27:15 Is there hope for both sides setting aside the culture war?

1:32:30 Which 5 members of congress are most likely to retire?

1:37:45 Thoughts on Dems losing the midwest post-Obama?

1:40:45 Why do voters keep signaling they want change but elect boomers?

1:47:00 DINO and RINO candidates keep winning, is this a good strategy?

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