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Feel free to ignore this podcast episode - Richard Shotton

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The Power of Freedom

Dotsman Cole Hartnott asked marketers to predict which adverts were most successful. She said there's a slight improvement when they were within category, because maybe within your category, you've just got a bit more of a bank of data to work on. But even then, it was only slight. The marketers are very poor judges their own work. And I don't think it's just marketers. There's a famous study by Philip Tettlock where he got professional forecasters to make predictions about what might happen. So it is a general problem with prediction and... Well, without getting too political then, it might explain the sage charts during the pandemic, which predicted the curve

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