Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is "clearly late" in addressing a commercial real estate nightmare while consumer credit remains quiet, creating a "silent recession" ignored by markets. He warns the "Big Beautiful Bill" will drive inflation higher despite Trump's demands for rate cuts, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's shift to T-bill issuance representing a "last resort before default." Whalen predicts NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani will win and destroy real estate values with rent freezes, while inflation radicalizes politics nationwide. He advocates for gold as central banks abandon dollars, positioning in short-term treasuries and bank preferreds, and warns America needs an Argentina-style "Milei moment" crisis to force real change.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction: Chris Whalen
00:59 Fed is "clearly late" - commercial side is a nightmare
02:31 Fed late but no rate cuts coming soon due to fiscal deficits
04:28 Big beautiful bill will cause higher inflation and long rates
06:48 Silent recession in commercial real estate and private credit
09:18 NYC mayoral race: Mamdani 70% chance, will freeze rents
11:40 Wealthy exodus from NYC unlikely - condos vs. rentals
13:00 Inflation radicalizing Democratic Party politics
14:23 America needs Argentina "Milei moment" when crisis hits
16:13 Bessent switching to T-bills - last resort before default
19:17 Trump mismanaging relationship with Powell
20:45 Bank sector: deflation in lending, lack of credit demand
22:35 Private equity "train wreck" ignored by Fed stress tests
24:10 Dollar decline signals gold returning as reserve asset
25:30 Physical gold vs. ETFs discussion
27:12 Portfolio positioning: gold, bank preferreds, short-term treasuries
29:51 Housing volumes down 20-25%, lock-in effect persists
32:02 Southern overbuilding compressing million-dollar homes
35:20 Warning about market reaction to big beautiful bill
