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Jurrien Timmer: The Trade For A 2023 Recession

The Macro Trading Floor

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The Risk Reward Is OK, but It's Not Fantastic

I think it's a shame that we didn't have him as a guest five weeks ago first of all I mean you and I discussed this almost daily, right? And I kind of think that the risk reward now is is okay, but it's not fantastic um given that. Then ultimately it will converge from the market pricing of 40% recession to the market pricing 70 80% recession probability which means you're basically locking higher rates. The forwards are pricing today because the fed will end up cutting in the end 300 400 basis point or something like that.

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