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6min chapter
The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish
Forward Guidance
The Fed's Dot Plot
The Fed predicted in December of 2021 that rates would be at 0.86%. One year later, where were they? They were over 4%. So, when you think about that, and it doesn't sound like a lot, they missed by a few percent. But just in absolute terms, 3%, what could that do for long-term bond? Well, if you take a 30-year treasury that's yielding 0.25 or 0.5%, and now in the market is asking for over 4%, well, you have 30 years of interest that you have to make up on that. And so, this is exactly what we saw with Silicon Valley as banks started taking their money out
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