On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle.
Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle.
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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021
(03:57) Forecasting A Recession
(08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation
(14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe
(16:42) Oil Market Outlook
(19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy
(25:12) BCB Group Ad
(26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy?
(39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil
(41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World
(57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market
(1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond
