
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
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ECB Growth Outlook - Is China a Major Driver?
We're looking for a 250 basis point moves, and then we've got another 25 basis point move to take us from 2% at the moment for the deposit rate to 3.25%. We debated adding a little bit to that in light of a stronger growth outlook. On the other hand, the ECB historically has also shown that they're quite sensitive to headline inflation. So it might end up being a wash from the ECB's perspective, but so we're still at three and a quarter, at least in the baseline. The idea here is basically a V shaped recovery in terms of activity in especially areas that involve a large amount of face-to-face interaction.
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