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2min chapter
Critiquing Effective Altruism (with Michael Nielsen and Ajeya Cotra)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Effect of the Ultrasway of Thinking on Expected Value Maximization
I don't know how to make sense of EV calculations except in sort of things that we already understand. I think if you've been an effective altruist in the 1660s, trying to decide whether or not to fund Isaac Newton, he had no legible project at all. He was laying the foundations for a worldview that would enable the industrial revolution and a complete transformation in what humanity was about. Most of the things which have mattered the most all outside that kind of framework.
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