Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours (April 2021)
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Forecasting Tournaments Are a Hard Sell
People forecasts do not just serve an accuracy function, they're interested in a there interestin fitting in. Exaggeration is the way to go if you're in a forecasting tournament and you play that way, you're going to get creamed. I don't want to have too many opinion why? Why? Who would care what my opinionthi why should anyone care? You're much more likely to exaggerate when you're not in a forecasting tournaments. Ou're not playing an accuracy. When you're playing a political power maximization, mediate exposure game. Yo. Might be out a couple together. Can for economists or somethingtto have a deal with. There could be something
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