How Did You Determine How Big the Addressable Market Is?

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I underestimated how big it could get. There are several businesses that are trying to lose, lose that about China. I didn't do a bunch of market research when I did cynicism. My conversion range is within the 5%, 5 to 10% sort of paid versus free lists band. But my general view was the market's not going to be that big. And so for me, if I can make this into, you know, 2,900 subscribers over the next few months, that's, that'll be a fine business. That's your model.

Bill Bishop likes to make clear he’s not a journalist. Instead, he’s a China analyst who brings his deep understanding of the country to an English-speaking language through his newsletter, Sinocism. In 2017, Bill became the “original Substacker” after teaming up with Substack’s co-founders to be the first newsletter on the platform.

On this week’s episode of The Rebooting Show, Bill and I discuss his independent path, and how a subscription model has created different dynamics as opposed to his experiences in the dot-com era as a co-founder of Marketwatch. What’s telling to me is that Bill is also now considering advertising. The Substack model of “only ads” doesn’t make much sense long term for most writers. Even if they convert 10% of their audience, they’re making no money from 90%. Most businesses don’t operate that way.