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The Signs of a Bubble
A bubble is a moment when a shared narrative about some new exceptional opportunity begins to get beyond the immediate group concerned with it. So the underlying sign of a bubble is lack of anxiety. Does that mean we can ex-anti-identify bubbles and crashes? Well, that's what I've been working on with the Bank of England. It's very hard to tell which thing is going to be the next fantastic object. But if such a thing is generating persistently excitement without anxiety, give inWhat I've said about uncertainty that is grounds for very forensic analysis.