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4min chapter
Ronald Meester and Klaas Slooten, "Probability and Forensic Evidence: Theory, Philosophy, and Applications" (Cambridge UP, 2021)
New Books in Mathematics
Probability and Statistics Can Help Us Interpret and Analyze Forensic Evidence
Sally clark was the mother of a three months old boy. She died while alone with her baby at home, and this was attributed to crib death. Two years later, same thing happened with her second child. They claimed that the probability for this event to happen was one in 72 million if said the clerk was innocent. The judge concluded that this probability was too small to believe that hypothesis, that she was innocent, and she was convicted twice. So yes, something very unexpected happened, something that had a very small probability, but that's completely irrelevant. Ando: "It illustrates the need for proper, probalistic reasoning in legal and forensic situations"
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