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Winter and Beyond: An Inflection Point in the War Over Ukraine

War on the Rocks

CHAPTER

Do You Think They're Using Mobilized Personnel to Create New Formations or to Plug the Gaps?

I think it's all about deploying around 50,000 plus maybe of the people that initially mobilized to plug the gaps. But as ruthlessly as mobilized personnel are being employed, that line has been shifting very slowly in Ukraine's favor rather than a sustained breakthrough in momentum. I'm looking for a judgment mobilization more sort of three months out from this point to see where things stand towards the end of February. Russia may suffer a lot of casualties due to injury or sickness during the winter. If there's a concerted Ukraine offensive later this winter, especially since cold snaps are likely coming, then another part of the front might break and Ukraine could have a significant breakthrough. The Russian military can consolidate defensive lines

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