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Episode 160: Crude Reactions

Words & Numbers

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The Negative Pressure Tests and the Causality of Disaster

As an economist when you start reading these post disaster reports all that comes to my mind is Jim Heckman and selection which is we tell our students in econometrics classes given a value of a dependent variable. You then don't look backwards and see what the values of right hand side variables were and conclude that they were the cause. That perspective isn't at all in any of the reports I read again because economists aren't involved how to think about even figuring out the causality of disaster for all I know these pressure results these negative pressure tests that they talked about in the report could be that those results vary all over the place all the time. It's not clear that the alleged causal

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