2min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

The Polls Show Republicans Doing Better Than the Average, Right?

Democrats were leading in the generic ballot average from Labor Day to September 1st. In the end, Republicans were leading by a 1.2 point. So it did shift two points in that final stretch. I think it's probably mostly real that there's a point or two. Okay. Well, let's talk about the partisan polls. Maybe the spiciest.

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