Reflections on Predictions and Controversial Opinions

Erik is joined by Sam Lessin, General Partner at the early-stage VC firm Slow Ventures, essayist, and former VP of Product at Facebook.

--

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

SPONSORS:

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all ecommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one ecommerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg.

Vanta: https://www.vanta.com/upstream 

Compliance doesn’t have to be complicated. In fact, with Vanta it can be super simple. Vanta automates the pricey, time-consuming process of prepping for SOC 2, ISO 27001, HIPAA, and more. With Vanta, you can save up to 400 hours and 85% of costs. Vanta scales with your business, helping you successfully enter new markets, land bigger deals, and earn customer loyalty. Bonus? Upstream listeners get $1000 off Vanta. Just go to https://www.vanta.com/upstream 

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00:00) Episode Preview

(00:01:00) On Screenshot Essays, writing, and being OK with being wrong

(00:03:54) Sam’s thesis on the factory system of venture capital

(00:07:18) What does venture look like when the factory line is over?

(00:10:10 Sam’s bearishness on YC and a16z

(00:-) What are the best firms going to look like in the future?

(00:15:08) Sponsor: GiveWell | Oracle Cloud Infrastructure

(00:17:47) The future state of company building and venture

(00:19:16 On the fake unicorns in the past decade and what the next 10 years of unicorns might look like

(00:23:15) The biggest factors of luck in life and company building

(00:24:29) Sam’s thesis on constellation software

(00:28:01) Thoughts on the studio model of venture

(00:30:20) Team Shares and why that’s Sam’s most bullish investment

(00:33:06) Sponsors: Vanta

(00:34:31) Why Sam is bullish on crypto

(00:39:47) The different models of finance and investing in creators

(00:43:11) Sam’s advice for future investors in 2040

(00:46:16) Is the LP landscape going to change significantly?

(00:48:10) On consumer social

(00:50:20) On VC firms and indexing

(00:52:54) Lower variance founders

(00:57:16) Kardashians and the future of media / celebrity

(00:58:48) Sam on Balaji’s protech and anti-journalist class

(00:59:50) What could have made Twitter a $100b company?

(1:02:17) How can we represent social capital on the internet?

(1:03:48) On the end of capitalism

(1:07:24) Slow Ventures today and where they expect to go in the future

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.