Surveillance: Labor Market Sends Mixed Signals
Bloomberg Surveillance
00:00
The Long and Variable Lags in Market Positioning
There's very little conviction. If you take this consensus view, 65%, 70% probability of recession in the next 12 months,. It's recession is the consensus. There's not a lot of recession risk priced into the financial markets. Look at credit markets and credit spreads, their expansion levels. So if you're going to push back anywhere, I think the pushback is this kind of 70% consensus probability of recession right around the corner.
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