Navigating the Oil Market Challenges

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tony Greer, trader, editor of The Morning Navigator , and co-founder of the MacroDirt podcast, to discuss the current state of global markets. The conversation begins with an overview of the chaotic economic landscape, including regime change dynamics, inflationary pressures, and market volatility across sectors like bonds, gold, oil, and Bitcoin.

Tony highlights the breakdown of traditional market correlations, making it difficult to predict trends. He emphasizes gold as a key store of value, noting central bank buying but expressing caution about its current highs and potential vulnerabilities if buyers step back. Gold miners, meanwhile, are performing well, though Tony questions whether larger investors will shift allocations into them.

The discussion turns to bond markets, particularly the Japanese situation, where yields have spiked, raising concerns about central bank intervention. Tony suggests that yields may continue to rise before any potential stabilization. He also touches on inflation, noting that while official numbers appear tame, everyday costs remain high, and the impact of tariffs could linger.

Oil prices are surprisingly stable despite geopolitical tensions, with plenty of supply keeping prices in check. Tony speculates that energy stocks could rebound if oil prices stabilize but remains cautious about their profitability at current levels.

The interview also covers the broader economic picture, including the risks of a U.S. recession and the impact of Trump’s trade policies. Tony expresses skepticism about chasing recession narratives, instead focusing on market trends and central bank behavior. He concludes by reiterating the importance of watching stores of value like gold and Bitcoin, given the ongoing themes of currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.

Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Interesting Times
1:42 – Politics & Correlations
3:44 – C.B. & High Gold Prices
12:05 – Timeframes & Signals
16:46 – Capital Rotation Miners
19:44 – Global Debt Markets
22:57 – Volatility & Confusion
25:16 – C.B. Coordination & YCC
27:00 – Inflation Threats?
28:41 – Oil Price Drivers
33:18 – Recession Risks?
35:25 – Tariff Ramifications
37:14 – Copper?
38:10 – Trump’s Administration
40:40 – 2025 What to Watch
43:58 – U.S. Debt Overhang?
45:21 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/tgmacro
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
Macro Dirt Podcast: https://www.google.com/search?q=macro+dirt+podcast

After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.