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Robin Hanson on Signaling and Self-Deception (Live at Mason Econ)

Conversations with Tyler

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How to Do Combinatorial Prediction Markets

The idea of doing prediction markets on a combinatorial basis that's largely your contribution is that correct one variation on how to do combinatorial prediction markets. Tell us in a sentence what the word combinatorial means in this context billions and billions has Carl Sagan would have said lots and lots of variables so an ordinary prediction mark you might bet on the election which candidate will win or something then you've got a handful of things you're betting on. If you take a lot of these questions you can create combinations of them and if you have 10 questions each of whom has 10 answers you can make 10 to the 10 possible questions which is 10 billionYou might think that would be impossible to actually

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