The Financial Crisis in Chicago: Consequences of Governance and Taxation

This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy!

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HjM04EXMKGsMRRzD1L_oaSqbYpGJT375/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:03) Market Whipsaw

(03:10) Miran Fed Nomination

(06:07) Where Are We Right Now?

(10:19) CRE & Chicago Meltdown

(16:50) VanEck Ad

(17:35) Pension Crisis

(22:17) Dependence on the Rich

(26:29) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios

(32:59) VanEck Ad

(33:43) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios

(36:52) Gold Demand & Bitcoin Reserve

(40:28) TGA Rebuild

(48:19) Negative Real Rates Incoming

(50:14) Vanguard Bond Allocation

(53:52) Our Slow-Moving Trainwreck

(56:04) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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