On The Record (10-06-26).
Unf*cking The Republic
Warsh’s Balance-Sheet Challenge
Max contrasts Kevin Warsh’s rate decision with his longstanding preference for shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and limiting liquidity support.
This week we diagnosed the economy as a giant zit—good numbers on the surface, all of it concentrated in AI investment and stock market gains for the top 10%, while wages fall below inflation, consumer confidence hits a 12-year low, and the 10-year Treasury just blew past its 2007 peak. Then we looked at what the pop actually looks like: a private credit unwind that drags the banks with it, a Fed that can’t buy its way out this time, and Scott Bessent left holding the bag. The Buffett Indicator is sitting at 235%. Maybe that’s why he retired...
Chapters
Intro: 00:00:42
Quick Takes: 00:01:24
Max Notes: 00:06:35
Killer Left Take of the Week: 00:21:10
Chart of the Week: 00:22:15
Outro: 00:23:16
Resources
CBS Sunday Morning: Alan Alda on fighting Parkinson’s with laughter
This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von: Zohran Mamdani
NBC News: U.S. bombers scrambled out of U.K. airbase after threats
CNBC TV-18: Pete Hegseth’s ‘Just Warriors’ Speech: ‘No Fatties, No Wimps, No Radicals’
Bloomberg Television: Brazil Real Surges After Bolsonaro Takes Surprising Lead
ABC News: US monitoring reported fatal case of pneumonic plague in Russia
WSWS.org: With complicity of media and Democrats, Trump prepares major escalation of Iran war
ADP: National Employment Report
Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary
Schwab: Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight
Bloomberg: Treasury 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2002 on Rate Outlook
Squire Patton Boggs: The Private Credit Market: The Data Behind the Headlines
Federal Reserve: Monetary Policy Report – July 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Remarks at 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
CNBC: Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes for the first time since 2023
Yahoo! Finance: Trump slams the Fed rate hike, says he told Warsh ‘you might as well vote with the board’
CNBC: Warsh’s regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistance
CNBC: Warsh faces Fed independence test as Bessent moves in on central bank’s turf
PWC: Private credit’s next phase — growth under pressure
International Monetary Fund: Bank Lending to Nonbank Financial Institutions Continued To Increase Rapidly in 2025
Democracy! Now: Lula vs. Bolsonaro (Again): Brazil’s Presidential Race Goes to Runoff as Right Wing Makes Gains
MacroMicro: US - Total Market Cap (% of GDP)
UNFTR Resources
Video: On The Record 10-06-26 (Trump’s Economy is a Giant Zit.)
Episode: Private Credit: Just Because We’re Not Talking About It Doesn’t Mean It’s Not a Problem.
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