Net sales and market cyclicality

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 44, 2025 Myself and Bryan Mansell, boss man of Gazeal, look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 9th November 2025. YouTube link https://youtu.be/ijworHDmx-M ✅ New Listings * 27.1k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 27.5k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * 9 year week 44 average : 28k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.56m new listings, 1.4% higher than 2024 YTD (1.54m) and 8.9% above the 2017–19 average (1.43m) ✅ Price Reductions * 18.5k reductions this week, slightly higher than last week’s at 18.3k. * Decrease in the number of homes on the market as 12.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in October. Compared to Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 22.5k homes sold subject to contract this week, down as expected from 23.5k last week. * Week 44 average (for last 9 years) :22.7k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.137m gross sales, which is 3.9% ahead of 2024 (1.096m) and 12.5% above the 2017–19 average (1.012m). ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £400k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £362k - a 10.6% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price has dropped from £452k in Sept to £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 15% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in September. Up from 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,975 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,182. * Fall-through rate: 26.5%, slightly up from 24.2% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 16.6k net sales this week, down (as expected) from 18.2k last week. * Nine-year Week 44 average: 16.9k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.7k. * YTD: 867k, which is 3.4% ahead of 2024 (839k) and 9.4% above 2017–19 (793k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * Initial October Stats : 53.5% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in October. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more October comes in) * September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 742k homes on the market at the start of November, 2.4%% higher than November 2024. (725k) * Notable increases include 9% more homes for sale in London than 12 months ago (9.96% in Inner London & 9.03% in Outer London) & 5.48% in the South East and 5.02% in the South West. The North has seen a drop in homes for sale. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in October - £1,916 pcm - compared to £1,802 in Oct 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in October ’25 - 323k compared to 302k in October ’24. * Notable increase of 23.8% more rental home sin Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 4.8% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why