Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson
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Prediction markets, Polymarket and debate
Hosts discuss the surge in prediction markets, Robin Hanson’s vision, regulatory backlash concerns, and real-world use cases.
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Transcript
Episode notes
- (01:57) - Rich Greenfield, a partner and media analyst at LightShed Partners, discusses the complexities of the ongoing bidding war between Netflix and Paramount for Warner Bros., highlighting the antitrust implications and the evolving competitive landscape in the streaming industry. He emphasizes that defining the market narrowly to only include premium subscription streaming services overlooks the vast competition from platforms like YouTube and traditional television, making antitrust evaluations challenging. Greenfield also notes that both Netflix and Paramount aim to leverage Warner Bros.' extensive content library to enhance their offerings, with Netflix's algorithmic prowess potentially revitalizing underutilized assets.
- (21:06) - Timeline Reactions to WB Bidding War
- (44:11) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions
- (53:52) - Prediction Markets on a Tear
- (01:03:11) - Delian Asparouhov is a Partner at Founders Fund and Co-Founder and President of Varda Space Industries, a company pioneering in-space manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and advanced materials. In the conversation, he discusses the appointment of Jared Isaacman as NASA Administrator, emphasizing Isaacman's leadership qualities and the positive impact on the commercial space industry. He also explores the strategic importance of lunar missions, advocating for the Moon as a critical step toward Mars exploration, and highlights the potential of space-based infrastructure like mass drivers for efficient transportation of materials.
- (01:32:03) - Sarah Harrelson, founder and editor-in-chief of Cultured magazine, discusses the magazine's focus on contemporary arts and its holistic approach to content. She shares insights on the evolving art market, noting a recent correction and the importance of collectors who buy in both good and bad markets. Harrelson also reflects on the current challenges facing Los Angeles's art scene, emphasizing the need for new theaters and innovative approaches to engage audiences.
- (02:01:25) - Google Adding Ads to Gemini in 2026
- (02:06:57) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions
- (02:17:32) - Morgan Housel is a partner at The Collaborative Fund and a former columnist for The Wall Street Journal and The Motley Fool. He is the author of the best-selling books "The Psychology of Money" and "Same As Ever," which have sold millions of copies worldwide. In the conversation, Housel discusses his current focus on reading and contemplating future projects, the challenges authors face in balancing audience expectations with creative freedom, and the importance of honest marketing in building a long-term brand.
- (02:36:55) - Andrew Pignanelli, co-founder and CEO of The General Intelligence Company of New York, discusses the company's mission to enable one-person, billion-dollar businesses through AI agents. He highlights their recent $8.7 million seed funding led by Union Square Ventures and introduces "Cofounder," an AI chief of staff designed to proactively assist businesses by automating tasks and integrating with various tools. Pignanelli envisions a future where AI agents manage entire companies, allowing entrepreneurs to focus on strategic decisions while agents handle day-to-day operations.
- (02:45:43) - Brian Mehler, CEO of Stable, discusses the recent launch of Stable's mainnet, a Layer 1 blockchain designed to streamline financial transactions using stablecoins, with USDT serving as the native gas token. He highlights the network's key differentiators, including its partnerships with PayPal Ventures and Anchorage Digital, and the use of USDT for transaction fees to simplify user experience. Mehler also emphasizes the network's speed and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional Layer 1 blockchains, aiming to address common frustrations in financial transactions.
- (02:50:41) - Will Wilson, CEO and co-founder of Antithesis, discusses his company's approach to improving software reliability through deterministic simulation testing. He explains that traditional testing methods often fail to uncover unforeseen issues, whereas Antithesis's platform runs software in a controlled, simulated environment to identify and reproduce rare bugs. Wilson also highlights the significance of their partnership with Jane Street, which began as a customer relationship and evolved into a strategic investment, underscoring the platform's effectiveness in enhancing software quality.
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