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Dr. Edward Altman Says Commercial Bankruptcies Are Set to Spike in 2024-25

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The Future of Interest Rates in the United States

In 2023, we estimate that the default rate in the United States on IEO bonds in 2023 will be about 3.5%. That's a little above the historic average. The 1.6% for IEO bond default rates through the first half of this year will get us to about the historic average by the end of the year. And so while default rates are much higher than they were last year and the year before, they are still about average.

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