Demographic Shifts in Conflict and Migration

In this episode, hosts Malcolm and Simone are joined by Swedish demographer David Lorenzo to discuss intriguing demographic shifts. Delving into the incel crisis in Europe and the United States, the conversation explores how this has driven a mass female immigration into Western countries. The discussion highlights the gender-balanced migration trends often misrepresented in the media, particularly from regions like Northern Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Additionally, they examine the factors contributing to the crashing birth rates in the second generation of immigrants in Northern Europe and other surprising demographic trends. The episode touches on the impact of marriage migration, political divides, gender-segregated economies, and the potential future implications for Western countries compared to other regions.

The Song:

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Hello, this is Malcolm and Simone here with a guest David Lorenzo, who's a demographer from Sweden

and he's coming to us with some interesting theories. He pulled up a lot of data on. To just give like a brief summary of what we're gonna be getting into on this episode, we're gonna look out how the incel crisis in Europe and potentially the United States drove a mass female immigration into the Western world.

We're gonna look at crashing birth rates in the second generation of immigrants in Northern Europe. And we're going to be looking at other surprising demographic facts that could be driven by current trends.

David Lorentzon: Thank you. I appreciate that. the research, when I got into it, I was originally researching mass immigration from the Muslim world.

And what Sweden does really well is that it has detailed data from every country and it also lets you divide it based on gender and age. Hmm. So. What I realized when I looked at the [00:01:00] total numbers was that it was very gender balanced migration into Sweden, but what you saw in the media was overwhelmingly male migration from, from the Middle East and Africa.

So there was a very big discrepancy between the portrayal in the media and what the data was showing, and I, I later discovered the answer when I started looking through each country. Individually and saw that some countries you receive a lot of male immigration from and some you receive a lot of female migration from.

And the female migration was so vast that it resulted in the total migration being gender balanced.

Malcolm Collins: Wow. So where are we seeing female immigration from

David Lorentzon: so. To visualize the data in a simplified manner. This is the immigration to Sweden.

Okay. And the

red is where it's majority female from, and the blue is majority male from, and all the beige, there's a few beige countries. That's where it's so gender balanced. Wow.[00:02:00]

And what you can see is that you can generalize entire regions of the world. So as, as you expect. You can see that Northern Africa, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent is overwhelmingly male. You can also see that Western Europe you receive majority male migrants from, and then you receive from Eastern Europe, majority female, east Asia, Southeast Asia, the sovereign half of Africa, and also in general Latin America.

That's where you receive mass immigration of women from. Mm-hmm. And it's primarily. Marriage migration.

Simone Collins: Oh, oh. Because I would Okay. Okay. The, the, yes. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. That explained so much. I was like, why?

Malcolm Collins: So let's talk about like a thesis for how

Simone Collins: this would happen. No one wants to marry American women in Sweden.

Well, no. It, it's, it's, well, no, but when you look at women in Sweden. I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry. America. No, but look

Malcolm Collins: at what, what these countries have. I have a Californian mom.

David Lorentzon: So,

Malcolm Collins: so what you see in these countries is that these are the most [00:03:00] anti woke and conservative countries with people who pass as white.

Specifically we're looking arbitrage.

Simone Collins: Major arbitrage. Major arbitrage. So

Malcolm Collins: within some of the woke countries like Sweden, and I would, wouldn't be surprised if we saw this in other European countries where the native women are removing themselves from the marriage market. Which is what we've seen with the rise of in seldom, and we've talked a lot about the dynamics of this.

One of the core things that happens is women begin to value their marriage marketplace value as equivalent to their sexual marketplace value which causes them to highly misjudge the quality of guy they can get and not enter these serious marriage market until, and, and they also don't realize how quickly their value degrades after 30.

So they and no, I'm not talking about this in like an objective, like I'm putting a price on women or something. Thing like that. What I'm talking about here is in the way that. Everything has a, a value to someone else. What I pay for a fish might be different from what somebody else pays for a fish, but it has an average value.

And if you [00:04:00] misjudge your value, or I misjudge like what this high house will sell for and I put it on the market at a stupidly high price, nobody's going to buy it. Especially if I get all full of myself and I say. I won't, on principle sell it for less than this price. I'm definitely gonna get no one to buy it.

But women in Latin America and Russia and Ukraine aren't gonna feel that way. Continue.

David Lorentzon: Right. So there are some serious, the reason that there's so many marriage such large levels of marriage migration coming into Sweden, it's because of imbalances in the dating market.

there is a lot of men who are in cells and instead of being idle and giving up.

They are traveling abroad, they are going on dating, we online services and the largest countries when it comes to marriage migration is Southeast Asia, like Thailand, Brazil. Mm-hmm. Like Russia. And you notice that these are countries that are relatively stable, middle income. Mm-hmm. Not deferred world [00:05:00] necessarily.

And it also tends to be popular tourist destinations such as Thailand, like 80% of all immigration Sweden, guests from Thailand is women.

Malcolm Collins: Fascinating. Well, Thailand's also known as a passport bro country. That's the other category of countries I'm seeing as passport bro countries.

Simone Collins: If I were a leader in this, this country, what would I would, would I create old fashioned feminine finishing schools should try to get remittances out of this.

Like where? It's such a weird thing, but like, can this be beneficial to the country out? I assume there's remittances coming outta because I'm assuming No, I mean, my, primarily, my primary concern would be that this is damaging to the countrys because it's causing a gender imbalance, which is gonna exacerbate their own demographic collapse issues unless they are in turn importing women from some other place.

So I, I would really worry about that. But if there's some way to make it a remittances gain. You could maybe make up for that. I don't know.

David Lorentzon: So marriage migration, overwhelmingly benefits Western countries when it comes to boosting their birth rates. They also, [00:06:00] the women don't tend to do a lot of crime and they tend to assimilate very well because you have a person inside the household who is actively working all the time with integrating that woman.

Simone Collins: Right? Yeah. So

David Lorentzon: it's not even the government that is doing the integration. The reason that the integration works is 'cause there is a man inside the house taking his personal time to integrate an individual.

Mm-hmm.

So this marriage migration, very little of it is happening in the in countries like India and China, and it tends to be these middle income countries like Brazil, Thailand, Russia.

That are on the losing end of this trade, that they are losing women and it's a net negative for them, but it's a, in general, a net positive for the Western countries. And it is having some serious demographic transformations in Europe and in the US as well. So if we were, I [00:07:00] did not only research Sweden.

For the Institute of World Politics, I research four countries. So the next country

Malcolm Collins: well, it makes a lot of sense with the concept of one, what Passport Bros are looking for. I also, and I think what we're seeing in this data is that Passport Bros are having a bigger impact on immigration trends.

Yes. And replacing the, I mean the White Western woman is being replaced. Yes. Like they have opted out of the genetic marketplace. Yes. Yeah. Well, and, and being quite

Simone Collins: mindfully. It's not as though like they're being. Passed up, you know, oh, I'm so sad. All the men are rejecting me. They're choosing to live alone.

It's not like these men are, you know? Actually I wouldn't,

David Lorentzon: I mean, what happens though? So you have the, the marriage migration is largely fueled by a massive surplus of men. So there are four factors that are leading to these massive, that there were way more men or single. Yeah. And also in the, these other countries as well.

So there's four factors that I really broke it down [00:08:00] to.

Simone Collins: Okay.

David Lorentzon: And it's not just in Sweden, it's in, there are more

Simone Collins: men in Sweden than women, you're saying?

David Lorentzon: Way more,

Simone Collins: of course. Making this up continue.

David Lorentzon: So if you were to just look at everyone between age zero and 65 and exclude all of those pensioners, then you see that there is about.

220,000 more men than women in Sweden. And it becomes even more extreme in their twenties and early thirties and Oh, okay.

Simone Collins: Because I'm looking at aggregate and it's, there's only a slight

David Lorentzon: Yeah. But when you exclude the people above 65, you see there's a, you know, oh,

Simone Collins: because they, yeah, they the survivorship problem, so, exactly.

Oh, okay. Yeah. So if there's a little bit. Of a deficit in women that actually a lot. Okay, if you

Malcolm Collins: exclude everyone above 65, what's the percent? Men, women.

David Lorentzon: So there's about 4%, 5% more men than women. Okay. And that, that that means that there's [00:09:00] about 220,000 of them more. What

Malcolm Collins: created that?

David Lorentzon: Naturally more boys are born than women every single year.

It's not 50 50, it's around 51 and a 5% of all births are boys. 48 and a half percent of all births are women.

Malcolm Collins: So my guess would be, yeah, that doesn't explain it. You think it's a genetic thing?

David Lorentzon: I think it has integration. Yeah. Yeah. It's a genetic thing that male sperm swim faster.

Malcolm Collins: No, no, no, no. This is true.

But this wouldn't explain this difference. It wouldn't explain a four five. Yeah. It's one of four factors. Okay. What are the other,

David Lorentzon: The other factor is that you have a gender segregated economy. That women prefer to do jobs that are, has to do with other people.

Hmm.

And that tends to be concentrated in the cities.

Hmm. Okay. And

men, it tends to prefer job that has to do with things such as construction, farming engineering. And that is usually what the job market and the countryside looks like. So when you look at where the marriage migration is going to, it's, it's overwhelmingly to the [00:10:00] countryside. That's the biggest form of immigration to the countryside.

I. Right, but that's bigger than labor.

Malcolm Collins: Any impact on the overall male female demographics of Sweden?

David Lorentzon: It is. It's, it's so numerous that it is having an effect.

Malcolm Collins: No, no, no, but I mean, it's, it, it, it mathematically can't unless they're leaving the country. Are you saying they're leaving the country for other cities?

David Lorentzon: Yeah. Yeah. A lot of women are leaving the countryside to move to the cities and, but the cities

Malcolm Collins: are still in Sweden.

David Lorentzon: Yes.

Malcolm Collins: Well, so then it wouldn't affect the four to 5% difference. So what are the other factors?

David Lorentzon: The other factors, oh yeah. That specific factor has to do with men just not dying, you know?

Oh, at the rate, usually men,

Malcolm Collins: historically. Yeah.

David Lorentzon: Yeah. Historically, men tended to die because of the occupation or because of war or something else that they just lived shorter lives. But since we've had peace for so long, for almost a century, you have a male surplus. It's wouldn't very small every year, but it accumulates over generations.

Malcolm Collins: It couldn't increase the initial [00:11:00] 1% surplus. What? What's the next thesis?

David Lorentzon: The next thesis is the political divide so that you know, men are overwhelmingly center, right? Women are overwhelmingly center left, and since Christianity is now taking a back seat in terms of priority for marriage. What's take precedence is political values, and it's become very hard for right-wing men, to find right-wing women to pair bond with and vice versa for leftwing women to pair bond with left-wing men.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, I agree with this, but this is only gonna create a functional problem in the dating market, not make women disappear from the country. So here's my thesis. None of these disappearing.

David Lorentzon: It's just the, because of these imbalances with finding difficulties in finding a partner. You are then.

Malcolm Collins: I agree. But we're dealing with a separate mystery here.

Mm-hmm. The separate mystery is Sweden has a four to 5% additional male population. Yep. Men are born at 1% more than women. You would need [00:12:00] something causing women 2% to leave the country. You would need either them moving to cities outside the country, which it doesn't appear as happening you would need.

So here is my guess of what's causing the imbalance. What's causing the imbalance is a mirage caused by changing immigration patterns. I would guess in the last generation of immigration, it was mostly workers from these like Middle Eastern countries and stuff, and that bolstered the male population because we already know that they were disproportionately male.

And so the functional. Problem we have right now is not a, literally, there aren't enough women. It's that nobody who is a male in one of these countries wants to marry one of these women who are in this country, due to political reasons, due to failures of the dating market as I was talking about earlier.

Which is actually a more interesting problem, I think, and that it also would imply that this trend of passport bros actually in mass enough to affect statistics enough to cancel how all like Muslim immigration is, is, is. Exploded very, very recently. And I [00:13:00] would believe that given what I have seen in our own social circles mm-hmm.

In the right wing influencer space in the us, like a ton of the men have girlfriends and wives that they got from Latin America.

David Lorentzon: Yes. So in the US I tried to find, yeah. Immigration divided by. Country and then divided by sex, gender.

Simone Collins: Okay. Okay.

David Lorentzon: And I could not find it in the US unfortunately. But what I think is happening in the US is that you're basically receiving the illegal immigration, the labor, immigration, and the mass marriage migration, all from the same countries, which is Latin American countries.

In

Europe, it's more easily traceable because it's all so categorically from different countries. Yeah. So from Thailand, you, you basically don't receive any labor or any illegal immigration. So when it says 80% women is obviously due to marriage, due to tourism, to those countries, they met someone and then they brought them back home.

Hmm. And when it comes to Russia, yeah, you receive a little [00:14:00] bit of labor from there, but it's when it, when it says 67% women, you can conclude that. Yeah. A lot of it has to do with dating services and. Marriage migration as a result. Yeah. So in the US you do have a large scale of marriage migration. It's just that it's very, it's a lot harder to trace because it's all coming from the same countries.

All these different kinds are coming from Latin America, basically. And so a couple of other major countries.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Let's look at the next map you got here.

David Lorentzon: So this is the map of the US in the year 2000, and you can see that in the Midwest there's a lot more blue. Which makes sense. It's more rural, it's less populated. Is blue

Simone Collins: men?

David Lorentzon: Men. Men is blue.

Simone Collins: Look at Alaska. I mean, come on Malcolm guess.

Oh yeah, Alaska, the matriarchy. I wasn't sure there was an immigration

Malcolm Collins: map.

David Lorentzon: You can look at Nevada, it's completely blue. That means it's overwhelmingly male. And that makes sense because these are less densely [00:15:00] populated areas.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: That have more agriculture, more resource expression. But why, why

Simone Collins: is MA so female?

David Lorentzon: Right. Is

Simone Collins: Miami so female as like extra female? That is,

David Lorentzon: but that's because they are major urban areas where there's a lot of services.

Simone Collins: Oh, but not Maine. Not Maine. Maine is means like the liberals Alaska, but, but

Malcolm Collins: also you have New Hampshire. So it might be like more libertarian areas or more females, I guess.

Also Maine and, and New Hampshire are both known as being very scenic. And I, I noticed, oh,

Simone Collins: the Lesbians Paradise. Yes.

Malcolm Collins: Anyway. Okay. Continue with the point you're making.

David Lorentzon: Oh, now we go three years forward.

Malcolm Collins: Okay. Okay. Now

David Lorentzon: the, the gender balance is almost exactly the same. So the gender ratio almost exactly the same.

Okay. But you can see here. That the amount of blue increased by a lot.

Simone Collins: California is losing ground. Yeah. Oh, that's interesting.

David Lorentzon: And what's happened here [00:16:00] is we have created a gender segregated economy.

Simone Collins: Look at that. Wow.

David Lorentzon: So women prefer to do jobs that are different from men, and men prefer to do jobs that are different from from women.

As a result, their migratory patterns are different. Men on in a, to a much greater extent, work and live in the countryside because that's where good jobs for men are.

Simone Collins: Sure.

David Lorentzon: Such as agriculture, construction, oil industry, resource extraction, et cetera.

Mm-hmm.

And in the cities you have jobs that has to do with people.

You have healthcare, you have public services, you have education, and,

Simone Collins: and you can argue that women are more dependent on social safety nets, both of the government and the family. So they're more likely to, if they have children, or even if they just wanna feel safer live closer to parents or this goes into the

David Lorentzon: psychology.

Yes.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: So women [00:17:00] prefer to have a job that is safe to do while being pregnant.

Simone Collins: Or if you have kids, you're gonna wanna be in an area that has daycare that's not like two hours away that the state pays for. So that makes sense.

David Lorentzon: Exactly. A night shift in, in a mine. Not very safe or appealing for pregnant women.

So, I

Simone Collins: mean, depending on your style. Sure. Yeah. Yeah.

David Lorentzon: But let's say a coal mine, right?

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: But so what you're pointing out here is that this is creating pressure for men to import women. Yes. That's, that's the point of this.

David Lorentzon: Yes. So the research in Sweden. Show that, for example there was a p paper called Thai Immigrants in Sweden, victims or Participants.

And it concluded that it was overwhelmingly to the countryside that they were going to. And there was a paper that Kaiser B shared with me on Discord.

Simone Collins: Nice.

David Lorentzon: When he was researching South Korea that showed that 30% of South Korean farmers had a foreign wife.

Malcolm Collins: Wow. Wow. 30%. [00:18:00] 30%. For people who are watching this and are like this phenomenon of passport bros actually marrying mail order brides or whatever you wanna call them is it that large?

I would ask yourself, do you live near an urban area? Because if you do, then you are not in one of the regions that is experiencing this, and you may not be aware of the scale of what is happening.

David Lorentzon: Yeah, so I would not have discovered marriage migration if I lived in the us you know, my parents, one is American, one is Swedish.

They were debating whether to, whether for me to grow up in California or in Sweden. If I grew up in the US I would never have discovered this because of the quality of the data and also because by living in the countryside in Sweden where there's such a. Massive male abundance. You notice it personal in firsthand, so, yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Well, I notice it in right wing culture in the US and, and this is something that progressives just refuse to see, but in right wing culture in the US there is [00:19:00] a large portion of right wing men with either East Asian or Latin American wives. One of the ones I think of like, just off the top of my head, a person who's always accused, even though there's like no evidence of this Johnny Anomaly, I don't know if you know his work, Johnny Anomaly must be racist or something, and he is married to a Brazilian, right, or yes. Or Columbia. Ian, I

Simone Collins: think, I think she's Columbia. Well, yeah,

David Lorentzon: there, there's so many you can name you know, when you start thinking about marriage migration and then just counts the number of people who have contributed it to it on the right wing, it's a long list, including Donald Trump.

SLO wife. I know, I know exactly. Donald Trump.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. And, and from one of these countries. But it is disproportionately going to be on the right wing as well. Like if you're like, I don't see this are most of your friends right wing? And the reason is, is because there is, . Two right wing men for every one right wing woman and for every one left wing. Man, there are two left-leaning women which is why a lot of guys fake being left for, for strange because Yeah.

Simone Collins: Well, also because [00:20:00] left-leaning women are really unwilling to even cross the aisle, which Yes.

Malcolm Collins: If the left-leaning women are less likely to date across the aisle than right-leaning men are in the statistics. Yes.

David Lorentzon: So. Due to all of these different factors like gender segregated economy the political divide, also dividing gender and that there's a, a slightly male surplus now because we haven't had.

A mass male killing event in a long time and et cetera. Do you have any more maps,

For example, let's go to Germany. Okay. Germany. So Sweden had. Data on every single country publicly available. These other European countries did not, they only usually only had like the top 40 or the top 50.

Hmm.

Fortunately with Germany, it also pre presented the continental data, so that's why it's kind of like striped to the side.

That's when you, I use the continental data. Yeah. And here you can see that basically the same. [00:21:00] Picture that Africa, the Middle East, Indian subcontinent, overwhelmingly male, Eastern Europe, overwhelmingly female, Latin America, overwhelmingly female, and also Southeast Asia is overwhelmingly female as well.

Malcolm Collins: And one thing I've noticed for this, which is really bad for the host country, someone you're asking like, when does this hurt? How could China, which already has a female shortage, and every one of these has been a net contributor of women, which is going to magnify the problem. Of a lot of men in China not being able to find spouses.

Yeah. And

David Lorentzon: when you are constantly losing so many women, then a fertility rate of 2.1 will not be sufficient. Yeah. If you're constantly losing women, you're probably gonna need a fertility rate of 2.2 or 2.3 to just have a stable population. And I calculated that in Sweden. The, the number of women we are getting is so vast.

That we don't need a fertility rate of 2.1 to have a stable population. In fact, it [00:22:00] would be growing at a considerable rate at that point.

Mm.

The stable, stable fertility rate would be at 1.9.

Malcolm Collins: 1.9. Wow. That's a shocking amount of immigration. Now. Yeah. Yeah.

David Lorentzon: And all you need is somewhere between five and 10,000 women on net immigrating into the country each year.

That's it.

Malcolm Collins: One of the things that you're pointing out and we'll get to in a bit, but I think that this is important to note that is part of this phenomenon is a crash in the immigrants fertility rate after they immigrate. That has increased recently in the same way that we've seen like the Latin America and fertility crashes.

One of the big changes that we're seeing now in fertility statistics is that a lot of these like Muslim populations that we thought would stay high fertility are not staying high fertility. And I suspect that a huge part of the problem for them is just not enough women. Because they really have to marry within their culture.

Mm. They don't have to, but it's, it's much harder to marry their

David Lorentzon: culture. And you have to think about now the, the interesting dating dynamics of immigrants populations in the West, because a [00:23:00] lot of these minority populations were like overwhelmingly one gender, which means that they can't marry within the group.

Hmm.

So if for example, the Pakistani in Italy is 70% male, yeah. Then most of those men are going to have to date outside of their own group or else be lonely forever. And then you entered in like the international dating markets and I concluded that, you know, even we like to. Be concerned about Western men having it hard on the dating market.

Imagine how difficult it is for Arab and Indian men in the West.

Malcolm Collins: Oh yeah.

David Lorentzon: When there is, when there is a massive abundance of men on the dating market, I. And most women prefer the Western European man.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Well, this is, this is also something to note in cross ethnic dating is that there's typically gender [00:24:00] preferences.

So typically like East Asian women perform disproportionately better when compared to East Asian men who perform pretty poorly. And it's the same with black men. Sometimes perform. Actually, no, they don't. Now that I remember the statistics, it's more of a stereotype. It's I know that white men perform unusually good across reply rates.

Like if you look at OkCupid data and stuff like that. So yeah, you're absolutely right. That would absolutely suck.

David Lorentzon: Yeah. So what I've concluded is that. Even if a minority population has a fertility rate of, let's say 2.1, if 70% of that population is men and only 30% of them are women, that population will still decline because those women will not be able to birth enough babies to replace all of those men.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Well, no. The 2.1 fertility rate would take into account the gender imbalance.

David Lorentzon: No.

Malcolm Collins: So is the 2.1 tied to women specifically? I [00:25:00] think it's tied to the entire population.

David Lorentzon: It, it's tied looking at the women, so it's, it's. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So it's calculating at the number of women and usually Okay. They have to have 2.1.

So it appears he's right when the data is recorded correctly. But it's hard to pin this down because it appears that some people don't always calculate the data this way, even though they should be calculating the data this way, , which is fascinating and can make TFRA much harder number to use to get predictions than I expected originally.

David Lorentzon: So when you think about these gender imbalances that, okay, let's say that the Thai immigration, which is let's say 80% of women, for them to replace all of the Thai women and all of the men, you know, you don't need a fertility rate of 2.1 among them.

They can actually increase the number, although as half Asian in most cases, if even with a lower fertility rate. So when you [00:26:00] have to, when you take into account these vast gender imbalances in various immigration groups, you realize that the female migration into western world. It's gonna have a long-term, bigger effect on the demographics than the male surplus.

'cause the male surplus is just gonna compete in a, in a dating market that is benefiting fewer and fewer men. And since there's such abundance of men, that means that most men are gonna lose that competition. Unfortunately that's it's something I'm not, I'm not taking joy in this. This is, I'm deeply sympathetic to men who are just gonna lose out on this through no fault of their own.

Malcolm Collins: Well, that's why you need grooming gangs. You're not gonna get one any other way. This is, this is what's going on there. Well, no, I mean, if you, if you, and this is something also to remember. Okay, so suppose you have two cultures living next to each other. And this is why I think grooming gangs is such a common phenomenon.

If one of the culture, the immigrant group is overwhelmingly male and they come from a [00:27:00] culture where men marry at a much younger age than they do within our culture, if they are courting women, even totally above board, and their culture treats women as essentially how slaves and their culture doesn't really let women make many decisions.

Even if they're doing everything above board from their own cultural perspective, it would appear from our cultural perspective to be a grooming gang because they would be targeting it because they do marry at a younger age in these countries. They would be appearing to treat these women as slaves afterwards, but that's normal in their country.

And they would appear to like not let their women go outside much and stuff after that. But that. That's normal in their country. Yeah. Yeah. They,

David Lorentzon: they rear them towards subservience.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Exactly right. I, I, that's, that's an interesting emergent phenomenon of overly gendered immigration from cultures that are dramatically different from our own.

Can you share the Italian chart, by the way? I don't think we got to that. In the UK one. Yeah,

David Lorentzon: yeah. It's, it's up right now. Oh, wait there we go. It's the uk That's [00:28:00] the UK that's the, yeah. Yeah, that's the uk. So you can see here that. The interesting thing about the UK is that since it's lost almost all of its industry

and

a lot of its economy is focusing on education, it's caused the majority of all immigration into the UK to be women.

Simone Collins: That's crazy. Yeah.

David Lorentzon: And. That means that most of Europe, most of immigration from Europe to the UK is women because they come there to study.

Hmm.

And but when you look at outside of Europe, outside of the Western world, it's basically the same trends with Middle East Indians, subcontinent, north Africa and China,

Malcolm Collins: just China over and over again.

This has gotta be murdering them.

Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

David Lorentzon: Oh yeah. Yeah. This is not good for China at all. Like more women are immigrating out of China than the men. Right. So whatever women

Simone Collins: remain, this is crazy. Yeah. Yeah. Let's look at, let's look at Italy,

David Lorentzon: we can right there. See, the number of countries was very limited, so, [00:29:00] but it still shows the same trends with an exception to Iran, which was fairly close to 50 50.

Malcolm Collins: I think that the Russia and Ukrainian situation was, this is gonna be way more impactful to their own populations than a lot of people realize. Right now. I think we're, we're talking about almost ethnic cleansing levels of depopulation in some of these areas.

David Lorentzon: So yeah, Western Europe receiving a bit of a demographic boost from the war in Ukraine because you have all these women leaving Ukraine.

Mm-hmm. And a lot of them will not return back home. Once there's peace again.

Malcolm Collins: Well, and also Russia. So I watch a number of Russian YouTube channels. And given that women are more left leaning and are more influenced by the urban monoculture a lot of women, you know, whether these are good women to marry or not, were sort of scared out of the country, is one of the things I've seen with the war because of the online conversation around the war that made them feel uncomfortable staying.

David Lorentzon: Yeah, a lot of the anti-war dissidents in [00:30:00] Russia there were a few million of them. They just left in the first year and two of the war.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: So there was a significant depopulation and a lot of them were women and I don't think they'll be returning back to Russia. So that means that yeah, it's just a, an a really serious demographic decline.

You're not going to, it's not gonna be sufficient for a lot of countries to have just 2.1 children per woman. Some of these countries are gonna need. A little bit higher than that, which is just makes the whole. Solution. And you know, the situation even worse. It makes, well, the argument that Malcolm

Simone Collins: makes again and again is it's, it's much worse than that because still in many of these developed countries, a huge portion of the population plans on having zero.

So there's even more overcorrection that has to be made. So, you know, but the point

Malcolm Collins: making Simone is look at a country, look at like Latin America, where we're seeing crashing fertility rates right now, this, this, this is where they're gonna deal with the biggest issue here. Mm-hmm. Latin America is also losing tons of its population.

So the state takes the time [00:31:00] and the expense to educate these people during the period when they're net parasitic on society, their young age. And then they move to the United States when they become producers and you know, never move back. At a same time, these countries, many of them have a lower fertility rate than the United States.

I, I need to run the mass on this, but I think right now about half of Latin America. Has a fertility rate that's lower than the United States. And it, and it will soon with it at least the next 10 years. Yeah. With, with this being the case, the fact that they are also losing population is going to drain them so quickly from an economic perspective.

David Lorentzon: Right. So when you really take these different factors into play, you realize that the demographic future of West, the western world is looking. Better than a lot of these other regions of the world. We, we do receive, even though we have a lot of disaffected, young, young people, I. They are, [00:32:00] they have better conditions and better circumstances for a good future than a lot of these other areas.

Even though these other areas might be growing it might be on the rise. I don't think that's gonna be long lasting. Mm-hmm.

Malcolm Collins: Well, I think we also need to consider the effects of immigration that is majority one gender from hard conservative cultures because not a lot of progressive women are going to be interested in marrying into a strict Muslim household, for example.

David Lorentzon: Right.

Malcolm Collins: Even though they, they signal that they would be, they like the moment they realize what's really up and they're like, oh, this is actually like conservative and not like play conservative. I think that they would say no to that. I'm also interested in the data you had on the collapsing fertility rates in second generation immigrants.

David Lorentzon: Right. So a lot of people are concerned that immigrant immigrants are becoming minority majority population in, in the Western countries. And there's a lot of data in Sweden that shows that the second generation of immigrants have a far lower birth rate [00:33:00] than the native Swedish women do.

So this is not showing in the, the regular TFR numbers. So it's, it's a relative numbers compared to Swedish women. Oh. At the top of this table, you have one that means that whatever number the Swedish women are having babies at.

Mm-hmm.

And if anything is showing above one, that means that they're having more children than Swedish women.

And if it ha is below one, that means that they're having fewer children than Swedish women. What is model A versus

Malcolm Collins: model B?

David Lorentzon: It's different ways of calculating this relativity, and I won't go into details of it, but the were different. There were different, models that they were running with.

Malcolm Collins: So this is really fascinating.

It, it looks like the Middle East, like if you're looking at where their fertility rate is relative to Sweden, it looks like okay, it's about the same as Swedish women, 0.96 or 1.02, depending on the model being used. But pretty much all of that seems to be coming from Turkish immigrants. Yeah. So this is

David Lorentzon: interesting that the Middle East category [00:34:00] is mostly just two countries, Iran and Syria.

Now the thing about Syria is that half of those immigrants are Christians, not Muslims. So half of them are Muslims, half of them are Christian in Sweden. And so the Middle East category and Turkey are having about the same number of children as Swedish women do in the second generation. Yeah. But when you look at these other countries that are Muslim, like North Africa like Iran.

It is way lower.

Malcolm Collins: It, it's, it's shockingly low. It's like at 0.43, 0.6. It's around house.

David Lorentzon: Yeah. And the most shocking one is Horn of Africa. That is Somalia. That is Eritrea, that is Ethiopia. They're having about half as many children, less than a 0.4, three 0.9 on

Simone Collins: Earth. Okay.

David Lorentzon: So that, that's something you usually don't ever see that Africans are having collapsing birth rates compared to Europeans?

Simone Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: And this is what I'm, I'm going to go to a [00:35:00] Swedish media studio tomorrow to talk about this and give people a white pill in the right wing that if immigration were to stop to Sweden rights now, and you just go forward a hundred years, then the, the Swedish share of the population would increase and the minority pop population would decrease as a proportion.

Hmm.

Malcolm Collins: No. Okay. I'm struggling with this. So it, it says that this graph was taken, I can understand if this was a ENT shift, but it says this is between 1998 and 2012. It,

David Lorentzon: it looked at every single year the birth rates of all these different groups of every single year, and they averaged out.

Malcolm Collins: Right.

You know, but what I'm saying is this must be unique to Sweden because I've seen other charts that show immigrants having higher birth rates at, at least within generation one of the native population. Yeah. So

David Lorentzon: generation one in Sweden shows higher fertility rates among immigrants, and that's why people get the conception that they are going to become a majority because they only look at the first generations.

Fertility rates, [00:36:00] which is easily available. That's you just look at who's four and born. Just look at their TFR. Mm-hmm. And then you just run a, the simulation on that, and then you make the conclusion, oh, they're becoming a MA majority in like a few generations from now. But here. You have data on the second generation, those who grew up in Sweden with immigrant born parents and they don't have the same number of kids.

So in Norway they had this interesting data that showed that immigrants have the same TFR After about 10 or 15 years of living in Norway and in Denmark, they have a bit lower, even first generation immigrants have a bit lower TFR. Than native Dan Danish women.

Malcolm Collins: So my read of this would be that these in groups, maintain their culture for gen one. And because they're from a different cultural background, they're going to have more kids. But after gen one they are much more susceptible to the urban monoculture because they haven't been as exposed to it. They haven't been forced for generations to send their kids to school [00:37:00] systems meant to brainwash them.

And so they actually get deconverted at a higher rate than kids from local, moderately conservative cultures would be my guess. Mm-hmm.

David Lorentzon: There's another valuable piece of data that you have to take into consideration is that most immigration concentrate in the cities, and we know that cities on average have lower number of children than the countryside.

Mm-hmm. That makes sense. And the countryside is homogenous.

Mm-hmm.

So when you say that, okay, the immigrants have higher number of kids, then that would suggest that the city should have higher birth rates than the countryside. I. But that's not the case. So if the first imi immigration, first generation immigrants are having more kids, then what explains this massive the significant lower number of kids that are born in the cities and it's the second generation that is collapsing?

Hmm. Yeah.

So this is, this means that, you know, it's not a permanent solution to [00:38:00] have immigrants replace the native born, the locals, the.

Malcolm Collins: Well, and one thing I'd point out here is this situation is actually worse than this in a way. Which is to say that the immigrants whose fertility rate is collapsing are the ones that acculturate and the ones who do not acculturate are the ones who keep a high fertility rates.

Yes.

David Lorentzon: So if you just look at those numbers the European countries that are most similar to Sweden have similar number of kids. And when you go further and further away from Sweden. It tends to get lower and lower. Yeah. And that's when you get, you know, the least, the most incompatible culture is from Horn of Africa, for example, or Afghanistan and et cetera.

Malcolm Collins: Well, and then, I mean, I, I think what we're seeing here is, is which immigrant populations are most likely to actually replace or not replace is the wrong word here, but I mean, integrate and

David Lorentzon: adapt

Malcolm Collins: end up becoming a permanent, like, like the actual fear that people have, [00:39:00] which is a, a different cultural group.

It's gonna have a higher fertility rate than us that we are importing. The really, the only one that I see that from a European perspective people would actually be super afraid of would be Turkey. And who has a huge Turkish immigrant population is Germany. Mm-hmm. So, as I said, Germany is cooked so many.

Other than, other than Germany some of the other countries might be in a better position than we would've thought. Yeah. Which is really interesting. Yeah. Encouraging.

David Lorentzon: Yeah. Yeah. So it's, it's not at all just doom and gloom about the future of the west. The incel in the west have a better chance than incel in the rest of the world by a long shot.

I,

Malcolm Collins: I, yeah. In a sense, they're shaping

Simone Collins: the future because they're the most likely also to pioneer a new post globalization intergenerational culture that works because they've, they've been the first to encounter the fact. That this, this current urban monoculture is deadly.

Malcolm Collins: I'd [00:40:00] also note the what's really interesting about this to me is the groups that are intergeneration, you know, when they get to generation two, maintaining a high fertility rate.

If you're looking at Arab, not Arab, Arab's the wrong word here with versions. We hate being called Arab. I, I, I'd say like Middle Eastern countries. It's the countries that are actually the most urban monoculture in their vibe. And the ones that are most radically different actually seem to be able to preserve their culture the least well.

Mm-hmm. You know, is like Iran having a terrible fertility rate in Turkey having a fairly good fertility rate. Mm-hmm. My guess is what's causing this is just exposure to the urban monoculture before this, like how radically different was this for them?

David Lorentzon: You gotta keep in mind that the Middle East had, has had the most radical.

Transformation in the last century.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: So the Middle East has a, had a population of about 42 million in the year 1917. And in the year 2017, a hundred years later, they had about 420 million. [00:41:00] So their population increased by a thousand percent in a hundred years.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Em,

David Lorentzon: Georgian had, you know, just a few nomads at a few hundred thousand, and today they are over 10 million people.

Wow. You know, they just built cities in the middle of the desert where there was nothing, absolutely nothing. And then these nomads and these go TURs and all of that suddenly had to adapt to a new urban reality. And their culture is not very well suited for that.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Well, and we're, and as you've pointed out in other stuff there, we're gonna see a massive collapse of water supplies.

It may not be as bad as you think. Elon pointed this out and I think he made really good argument on this, which he's like, if you look at the decreasing cost of desalination and you project it going forwards, it's actually been accelerating at a super fast pace. However, what I think Elon's getting wrong here is.

[00:42:00] Having desalination plants in these countries is going to require a sustained global economy. And if that begins to falter with the collapse of inevitable demographic collapse of Europe then I don't think that I would expect these countries to maintain access to desalination plants, which will lead to massive I outward immigration waves.

David Lorentzon: To give some context I. Mentioned to the Collins that I believe that a large portion of the world population is gonna run outta water in a couple of decades and that it's gonna cause huge waves of immigration probably to the west and other areas that are more sustainable. Yeah, and that's largely gonna come from the Middle East and North Africa that relies on aquifers.

And desalination plants to get their water. They don't have rain, they don't have a whole lot of rivers, they don't have a lot of fresh water lakes to get water from. So their water is mostly [00:43:00] aquifer and that's finite. I. Depleting at a very fast rate.

Hmm.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Well, and, and I mean, it's not just those countries.

If you're looking at the Americas for example, you have two major problems coming up. One is Peru and many people are like, oh, Peru. What a lovely place with Lake Jungle. No, Peru's mostly a desert. Yes. And the biggest city in Peru, Lima, which is like a mega city, it's, it's the same way that like Seoul is like a third of, or two thirds of South Korea's population.

It's just like a huge chunk of the country's population. I can't remember, but it's more than so. Is completely dependent on a water supply in the mountains, which is going to be gone in the next, I think, what, 15 years or something? Yeah. Or 20 years. Oh God. That is li Yeah, Lima is cooked. Simone.

That's why I want to get, we're trying to sell the house there right now.

David Lorentzon: California is cooked as well. Their agriculture is. You know, really running outta water.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: So yeah,

Simone Collins: they're draining the ogalala aquifer, which is terrify. But the thing about that

David Lorentzon: is

Simone Collins: that terrifying.

David Lorentzon: That's not gonna cause [00:44:00] a big food.

Threat to the, the American citizens that's just gonna remove all the food exports that the US is doing. So it's gonna primarily impact the third world that the US exports food to.

Simone Collins: Well, we're sort of preparing the world for that. Hello? Tariffs. I feel like they're, they're the, you know, let's, let's get ready for the future before we forced to.

So whenever people

David Lorentzon: think about natural resources, they always get fixated on the very specific stuff like lithium. Or oil and they tend to ignore the essentials like water, wood, sand.

Mm-hmm.

And things like that, that the west, including Europe. Has huge numbers of,

Malcolm Collins: well, I guess that was China is, China is, is so bad with its food.

Like it not only imports tons of food, it even, it even has to import. Its oh God, what is that called again? The nitrates. It even has to import Its nitrates. Yeah. Which means that if trade networks broke down, China would [00:45:00] be really effed by this. And the United States is in a, like a remarkably good position.

If, if any sort of deglobalization happens, 'cause we can easily feed ourselves and very few other parts of the world can both manage their own energy needs and their own food needs.

David Lorentzon: Right? And you know, when you look at it, what countries export the most food. It's all these European countries.

Mm-hmm. You know, they're not the top producers of food, but it would so export the exporting market. That's when all the European countries reach to the top, like Australia, USA, Russia, Argentina, France. And if those countries were to suddenly have a food crisis, they're going to prioritize their own citizens.

Yeah. If they have a economic decline. They're going to prioritize the needs and the safety of their own citizens and have to sacrifice their export markets so it's in the [00:46:00] best interest for people living in the third world that the West is doing okay. There is no, like we have such an interconnected world that there is no.

Local or national collapse. Like if one country goes, it creates a chain reaction that affects everyone else.

Mm-hmm.

Yeah. When the US economy sneezes the other, the rest of the world gets a cold. And I think it's not just the US but like smaller countries can have that chain reaction effect as well. Just to make a very fast summary, there is a huge amount of marriage migration going on into the west, and it's causing the migration into Western countries to be fairly gender balanced, more so than people believe.

Hmm.

That's coming from Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America for the most part.

Mm-hmm.

And that's driven by, you know, four factors, gender segregated economy. Political [00:47:00] divide between men and women. It's caused by us natural male surplus being born all the time and no wars to kill them off. And it's also caused by just women preferring to date the same men a small group of men rather than settle for an average guy.

So these urban women, they, instead of causing mass male migration, they, they resort to polygamy.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah.

David Lorentzon: And this male surplus in the countryside, instead of sharing wives, they import wives.

Mm-hmm.

So even if a country has 50 50 gender balance, you can still have a massive shortage of single women. That average man, average man can date.

And in that sense, the western world is in a better position in sales here. In a better position than the incel in deferred world.

Malcolm Collins: Well, and culturally these women are gonna convert much more than the men, as you [00:48:00] said, it's because they have a private, but ethnically, if you're looking at how these countries are going to change, what we're gonna see is a shift because women have kids, female immigrants have kids, male immigrants.

Can't really have kids,

David Lorentzon: Unless they find a woman. But that's becoming harder, harder and harder to do.

Malcolm Collins: So what we will see is they shift to become more Russian, more East Asian, more Latin American.

David Lorentzon: Yeah. Yeah. So the culture will be relatively unchanged. The crime levels won't be affected a whole lot by that.

But the genetic impact is gonna be significant. And that is a discussion,

Malcolm Collins: but I don't think, I don't think for most people who care about this stuff concerning,

Simone Collins: yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Just gonna be different.

David Lorentzon: Yeah. Yeah. In the US not so much, but in Europe there is more blood and soil vibe to the whole continent that there is, like, they're not gonna oppose it, but they're gonna be concerned about that and be a little anxious.

Hmm. Hmm. So, yeah, that's all I wanted to say. Thank you for adding [00:49:00] me on. I appreciate it's be

Malcolm Collins: anxious, but they're, they, they, they don't talk about it publicly. They don't fight for it. They're like, I'm gonna be anxious privately while we die out. I'm like, okay, great. Be anxious privately while you die out.

Be anxious while you

David Lorentzon: marry a Thai woman.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I I don't think any, I don't think any of the, like Gene Bros would care about that. Like, they're all, they all wanna marry, tie women Who doesn't wanna marry a tie? Woman actions speak

Simone Collins: louder than words. I don't know. Yeah. Hold on. There, there is a re there is a reason why.

Malcolm Collins: To, but I, I see the appeal.

David Lorentzon: I mean, you know, if you think about lineage a half Asian guy is gonna have worse odds at finding a partner in, in the west than a fully European guy.

Malcolm Collins: True.

David Lorentzon: So,

Malcolm Collins: but here's the thing. They make great women there. There's, there's, so, I don't know. I feel like Simone, they're still good at making women.

Some of their guys look like women.

They're into the, no, no, no, they're not, not really. This is why one of my favorite things I was talking to someone once about [00:50:00] like a trans person, and I was like, do they pass? And they go, they pass like a tie, A tie person. And I was like, oh, damn. They must pass really well. Yeah. Oh

Simone Collins: God.

David Lorentzon: All

Malcolm Collins: right,

Simone Collins: let's

Malcolm Collins: top here.

All right. Have a good one.

Simone Collins: This has been a pleasure. Thank you so much for coming on.

A cackle with glee at their self-centered ways. No children to carry their fleeting sad days. They spit on the past dodge the debts they should pay while I sow the future to wipe them away. Behold, my grand scheme, my violist might i'll their to cities with life boundless fights. Their hanno is culture.

All pleasure and lies leaves them. To the sky.[00:51:00]

They crave shallow thrills. Jason claps from the crowd, but their toxic obsession just builds them a shroud, depression, and. Dread twist their minds in a haze. Their selfish betrayal fuels their miserable days. Behold my grand scheme, my vital is light. I'll flood there to cities with lifeless fight. Their pleasure lies.

Leaves them broken, despairing without to the skies. They crave shallow thrills. Jason claps from the crowd, but their toxic obsession just builds them a shroud, depression and dreaded twist. Their minds in a haze. They're selfish, but trail fuels their M days be. My vital is [00:52:00] I'll flood their to cities with lifeless fight, their pleasure lies, leaves broken with how to the skies.

My ears will March 4th where their weakness collapses. Their legacies dust from their own selfish lapses. They squandered their souls for a fleeting, faint spark. Now their screams pierced the void of their self. Inflicted dark. Behold, my Chris game, my finalist might at cities with life boundless fight, culture, pleasure and lies, [00:53:00] leaves them broken with how to the skies.

Follow you narcissist and yourself crafted doom. Your culture's a toxin that choked out your bloom. My vitalist banner will soar. Your cries reclaiming tomorrow with life. That won't.