3min chapter

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours cover image

Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours

CHAPTER

Statistical Forecasting

Could you imagine producing e forecasting rules of rules like just predict no change over this kind of time scale? And for like, longer times cale is just like, look at the long tome, friend, and forecast that forward. That would allow people to kind o mechanistically just ecome like, better forecasters without having to go through all this effort of, like, becoming more foxy.

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