Cycle Theories and War Risk

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Marc Faber to the show. Marc Faber is Contrarian Investor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report. Their discussion centers on global economic trends, monetary policy, and the impact of continuous money printing by central banks. Faber, a proponent of the Austrian school of economics, critically examines the current financial landscape, highlighting how central banks and financial institutions are incentivized to continuously print money, which leads to uneven price increases across various assets. Faber argues that money printing fundamentally distorts economic systems, with financial institutions benefiting first from monetary expansion while average workers experience declining real wages. He points out that while nominal GDP might show growth, real purchasing power for most people has actually decreased. The conversation explores the historical context of economic cycles, with Faber referencing economists like Kondratiev and discussing how societies rise and decline.

The discussion shifts to geopolitical dynamics, particularly the changing global power balance between the United States and emerging powers like China and Russia. Faber suggests that the US is no longer in the dominant position it held post-World War II, with potential competitive challenges emerging from other global powers. Regarding investment strategies, Faber recommends diversification across assets like real estate, precious metals, stocks, and cash. He sees particular potential in gold, silver, and platinum as alternative currencies, and believes these metals can serve as protection against monetary devaluation. He’s especially bullish on platinum, suggesting it might eventually surpass gold in price.

Faber’s investment philosophy emphasizes understanding price dynamics over specific company details, advocating for purchasing assets below their intrinsic value. He remains skeptical of government interventions and central bank policies, viewing them as potentially destructive to long-term economic stability.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:51 – Precious Metals Bull Run
00:01:25 – Gold Market History
00:02:31 – Money Printing Effects
00:05:33 – Financial Industry Incentives
00:07:15 – Austrian Economics Overview
00:09:10 – Keynesian Policies Critique
00:14:40 – Economic and War Cycles
00:20:25 – Geopolitical Tensions Rise
00:22:47 – Global Financial System Risks
00:24:00 – Safe Currencies Gold Silver
00:27:12 – Approaching Economic Crises
00:33:02 – Portfolio Diversification Advice
00:35:49 – Silver Platinum Investment Benefits
00:42:05 – Newsletter and Personal Reflections
00:45:44 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
X: https://x.com/gloomboomdoom

Dr. Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a Ph.D. in Economics magna cum laude.

Marc is also a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world. In addition, Dr. Faber is a frequent speaker at various investment seminars and is well known for his “contrarian” investment approach.