With the Fed cutting cycle commencing this week, consensus expectations of a straightforward series of quarter-point rate cuts conceals a broad spectrum of potential outcomes. Commodities have rallied 15% on average over previous benign cutting cycles yet have faced much stiffer headwinds over past recessionary-tinged rate-cutting cycles. That being said, the risk of renewed inflation is also high, especially in the US, which will celebrate its 250th anniversary in 2026. Reflation, accompanied by stronger underlying growth momentum, has produced the strongest and most broad-based positive environment for commodities, averaging +1.6% monthly returns. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss how commodities have performed over previous Fed cutting cycles and what to expect this time around.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2025.
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