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End-of-Year Encore: 2023 Global Macro Outlook - A Different Kind of Year

Thoughts on the Market

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Is There a Recession in the US?

In the US, relative to say, the euro area, most of the slowing that we are seeing now in the economy is coming from monetary policy tightening. We're looking at growth that's very, very close to zero. And if you're in the equity market, in fact, it's going to feel like a recession even if it's not technically one for the economy. So where does that leave us? I think we can avoid a recession from an economist's perspective.

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