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The Left Tail of What Could Go Wrong
You have no idea what sufficiently restrictive monetary policy is until you are beyond it that's the tricky thing and if the Fed is genuine about risk management with regards to inflation the Fed is incentivized to overdo it. I think my sense is that investors are going to be surprised by how hard the Fed needs to lean into this we may have another quarter for mechanical reasons where asset prices do okay just because implied volatility is coming down but as we get into the back end of 2023 my best guess is no later than early fourth quarter that's a guess.