5min chapter

New Books in Finance cover image

Barry Eichengreen et al., "In Defense of Public Debt" (Oxford UP, 2021)

New Books in Finance

CHAPTER

Are Interest Rates Going Down?

Interest rates were slowly trending downward on average, most recently since the early 19 eighties a and i think there is reason to think that they have now more or less hit bottom. And we'll see a gradual trend in the direction of higher real interest rates. Demographic factors point in that direction. A savings rates, and high saving economies like china may come down to more internationally normal levels. There may be unusually high levels of investment for a couple of decades now,. But we can add increased military spending now in a variety of countries. So changes in demography and savings behavior and investment behavior may all now begin to reverse those trends. That will make managing our inherited debts more challenging.

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