Does Bata Predict Excess Returns?

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If i look at the literature on finance, it's very hard to predict excess returns. We're not even sure bata predicts excess returns. Firm size may be a little. Price to book value, maybe a little. If so, why don't we find that in the research literature? If not, why do we think they have predictive power? Do they predict excess returns? Polarization, credit rise of china? They don't seem to in finance papers. There were environments like the late 19 seventies, when federal observed chairman paul voker, tightened money and wanted to make it good to save and bad to borrow and have credit. That set of circumstances was caused by

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When Ray Dalio was 23, President Nixon announced that the United States would no longer be adhering to the gold standard for American currency. Clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Dalio expected to see chaos—but instead stocks soared. Curious to understand this phenomenon, he began to read about similar events in 1933, and it opened his eyes to the lessons that could be drawn from history. His latest book draws on the patterns he’s gleaned from studying dynasties and empires throughout time, as well as his own experiences as a hedge fund manager and founder of Bridgewater Associates.

Ray joined Tyler to discuss the forces that will affect American life in the coming decades, why we should be skeptical of the saliency of current equities prices, the market as a poker game, the benefits and risks of the US dollar as the world reserve currency, why he thinks US inflation will not be transitory, the key to his success as an investor, how studying the Great Depression enabled him to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis, Bridgewater’s culture of radical transparency, the usefulness of psychometric profiles, where the United States is falling short most in terms of moral character, his truth-seeking process, the kinds of education crucial to building a successful dynasty or empire—and what causes them to fail, how transcendental meditation helps him be creative and objective, what he loves about jazz music, what we undervalue about the ocean, why he loves bow-hunting Cape Buffalo, and more.

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Recorded November 5th, 2021 Other ways to connect

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